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Tiger, Tiger, Tiger…(and My Week 16 NFL picks)

So, now we’ve got this whole thing swirling around Tiger about whether he should take this indefinite leave or not and now we’ve got everyone on earth weighing and plastering him with self-serving commentary about how he should do this or do that. Let me say what I would do, and hope that this is what Tiger does.

If I were Tiger I wouldn’t take a leave from golf, but I would DEFINITELY work things out with my family. Besides the fact that he doesn’t play in many tournaments to begin with I don’t see the point in him taking a leave of absence when all he REALLY needs to do is tell his wife “I’m sorry for…(I’m not sure what exactly since we don’t know all those details) and will you forgive me.”

After that the ball’s in her court. If this were a woman in his position we wouldn’t be freaking out like we are over Tiger. Plus, Tiger is a human just like the rest of us and he isn’t perfect. He’s clearly had an image “crafted” by his handlers and the like, but who in the world who has a billion dollars needs handlers? I never understood that. If Tiger is the kind of guy (like me) who will, apparently, throw clubs and swear up a storm on the golf course then so be it. If he likes to tell off-color jokes (which he can get away with because he’s black) then so be it. He’s spent all this time being someone he’s not. What did his father have to say about all this? How much of this started when his father died? It’s got to be hard not having your Dad around when he’s the person who taught you the thing you’re best at in the world and now you’ve made a billion dollars playing that game and you can’t enjoy it with him anymore. THAT SUCKS!!!

I hope his wife doesn’t divorce him. I hope he comes back. I hope he plays well. BUT, I think that if he TRULY is more interested in his family than his game then he won’t win another major…here’s why:

If this is what it took to make him realize his family was more important than golf then he will always be slightly distracted when he’s playing. That “laser focus” will be gone. It’s not like he’ll shoot an 88 at the Master’s but he won’t win Majors at the break-neck pace he’s been winning them. If Jack Nicklaus toasts champagne every time Tiger doesn’t win a major then he needs to buy stock in Mondavi or Coppola immediately, because the chase is probably over for Tiger. Is that all bad? Nope, he’s STILL the best golfer of my generation, but there are too many other guys nipping at his heels for him to be slightly distracted and keep winning like he has.

Will Phil Mickelson all of the sudden step in and become the “new Tiger”? Nope, because he’s already where I think Tiger is now. Slightly distracted because his family is more important than his game. HAHA! I found a parallel that you can’t deny…didn’t I? Tiger and Phil are on equal ground now…let’s see what happens when Tiger comes back.

I’m 141-79 after a BRUTAL week of picking. The Bengals alone just really hurt me, but I’m over it now (mostly.) Let’s get to it.

Christmas Day: San Diego @ Tennessee

We already know that I don’t trust the Chargers and that I LOVE the surging Titans. I can’t say for one second that I would pick the Chargers, for two reasons:

1) They are the #2 in the AFC and that probably isn’t going to change (hence, they have nothing to play for.)

2) The Titans have A LOT to play for with 6 teams at 7-7 (including them) AND Vince Young is HOT AND he’s got weapons AND Chris Johnson is gunning for 2100 yards (and Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.) I started picking the Titans when it was clear that they were on fire…

I’m not stopping now. The best Christmas present the Titans can give themselves (much like in Twin Peaks…remember that? Kyle McLachlan tells the Sheriff (Harry Truman) to give himself a present everyday and his present to himself is usually a hot cup of black coffee. Yeah, the Titans need to take Kyle’s advice and give themselves the present of a win because I think they’ve got some losers coming in behind them.)

TEN – 31 SD – 28

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

There’s no way in the world that the Saints can lose another one…right? I don’t think so grasshopper.

Look at it this way: Tampa just beat Seattle (who isn’t nearly as bad as the Bucs and who has weapons and good players on their team) and we think that the Bucs can’t pull off another one against the Saints? It’s a divisional game people! (Why is it such a big deal that Cincy swept the AFC North? Because that’s freaking hard to do!!!!) I don’t care how good the Saints have been, but as soon as they dropped that game to the Cowboys they allowed a blueprint for stopping them to be published on national television and you can be sure that Raheem Morris was watching. Now, whether Tampa can actually BUILD something with that blueprint is another matter…but it’s out there folks. I’m picking the Saints, but barely, and I won’t be surprised if the Bucs steal this one too.

NO – 24 TB – 17

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

I love this one because what’s happening is the Steelers are in the group at 7-7 and the Ravens are holding the final wildcard slot. Now, the Steelers have had an “off” season to be sure, but they aren’t dead. (As an old family friend tells his wife “I’m old Janet, but I’m not dead!” Well, the Steelers may feel (and look) old, but they aren’t dead and we can’t do the “arm drop yet” because they would grab our arm and throw us across the room for trying to pronounce them dead on arrival.

The Ravens hold all the cards though because they control their own destiny. They have to keep winning, but they also have all the pressure of holding their own fate in their hands. This leaves us with a huge conundrum: Is Joe Flacco as good as some people think he is or did Big Ben just turn the Steelers into a new franchise by throwing for 503 yards last week? Well, I don’t think Joe Flacco is going to be the best QB in his draft class when they are all retired, but I don’t think he sucks either. I also think that Big Ben is equal in terms of talent with Flacco, but Ben Roethlisberger is a WINNER. Pure and simple. He wins when they need to. We all forget that his rookie season the Steelers went 15-1 and then the next year he told Jerome Bettis they would win HIM a Super Bowl….just Jerome…and they did. Then he drug them to another Super Bowl Title last year. He’s already got 2 rings and heaven only knows how many he’ll retire with. Do we think Joe Flacco can do the same thing with the same amount of talent? Nope. Sorry Joe.

PIT – 35 BAL – 17

Kansas City @ Cincinnati

The Bengals lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers last week and now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a pretty bad team. I mean, the Chefs gave up 286 yards of rushing to Jerome Harrison. I don’t even know who that is and now he’s got the 3^rd best rushing performance in league history on his resume. (Which also begs the question “What was Doofgini thinking having this dude on the bench all season?”) So, the Chefs give up 286 yards of rushing to one guy and now we expect them to be able to compete with a stinging and VERY ANGRY Bengals team? I don’t think so!

CIN – 38 KC – 13

Jacksonville @ New England

The Jacksonville Jaguars pushed the Colts to the brink last week and now they have another chance to push another good team in the Patriots. We know that the Patriots can be pushed because they aren’t killing everyone and Randy Moss took a game off, but can they CONTINUALLY be pushed? I don’t know.

I know Bill Belichick can coach (I don’t like him, but he can coach.) I know Tom Brady can play. I know Randy Moss CAN play if he wants to. I know their defense is well-coached. I also know that they are having issues this year that I can only quantify by comparing them to a fictional TV family headed by a venomous serial-killer who hides behind his own family (and kills Dexter’s wife because Dexter told him a little lie.) That’s all I’ve got.

With the Jags also being in the “Group of 6” at 7-7 they REALLY need a win because they aren’t winning their division and they’ve got to get ahead anyway they can. I suppose the comfort for them is that even though they aren’t trusted by the folks in Jacksonville they ALMOST beat the Colts. They were very close, so they are doing better than most.

I have to say that I am REALLY impressed with Jack Del Rio getting this team back after the “quit-fest” from last season. He’s got good players all over the place and he’s definitely using them better this season. They got rid of Mike Peterson and let him got to Atlanta (smart move since he isn’t doing much in Atlanta) and they’ve stuck with David Garrard even though there are trust issues. They may be at .500 but this is a victorious .500.

How do they push a beaten-down Patriots team? By running the ball over and over they have more power than the Patriots have with Lawrence Mauroney (I mean, it’s Lawrence Mauroney…the pride of the Golden Gophers here…not Earl Campbell we’re talking about) and when Garrard releases quickly he’s hard to beat. (Unfortunately for the Jags Tom Brady release quicker and much more frequently.)

NE – 31 JAC – 27

Carolina @ Giants

Carolina’s out of the playoff hunt along with the Falcons and they spent the whole year looking up at the Saints so now the only thing they can do that is even remotely productive is to spoil it for the Giants. The Giants are starting to get hot at the right time and they’re 8-6 so they’re on the doorstep of the playoffs. However, being behind Green Bay and Dallas is not exactly the position I’d want to find myself in right now.

Eli Manning is a Super Bowl Champion, but when Aaron Rodgers is on he looks like Joe Montana and he’s still got Donald Driver to throw to. The Giants have to play well AND hope for some bad luck for either the Packers or the Cowboys. Then there’s this other thing with the Panthers:

They started this kid Moore at QB and he basically showed the Panthers what they could have been doing without Jake Delhomme all season (and proved my point that he was holding their team down.) If this Moore kid goes out there feeling good about himself then the Giants are in for a rude awakening because the Giants’ defense isn’t all-world like it was a couple years ago…especially their secondary.

I don’t care for the Panthers, but I think they are “dream-ruiners” this season…

CAR – 27 NYG – 14

Check the rest of the picks after the jump…

Houston @ Miami

Both teams at 7-7 and one of them will get their playoff hopes dashed during this game. Miami is better-coached (and Tony Sparano isn’t on the hot-seat like Gary Kubiak), the Texans rely too heavily on Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, and the Dolphins have Ricky Williams (sans the chronic.) Miami has shown me that is they MUST have a win they could get (through trickery which won’t do them a bit of good in the playoffs) but they’ll get the win.

Miami winning is but one step in untangling this ugly mess of six 7-7 teams.

MIA – 28 HOU – 17

Seattle @ Green Bay

I just said a few paragraphs ago that when Aaron Rodgers is on he looks like Joe Montana: Well, when Matt Hasselbeck is on he looks like Steve Young (without the whole “lateral movement” thing.) Here’s my problem with this game…we don’t know which Aaron Rodgers we’re going to get. Will he decide to be consistent this season or that coming next season? If the offenses come out equal then we need to move to defense.

Green Bay has A.J. Hawk, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and Aaron Kampman. Isn’t that enough? Oh yeah, they have B.J. Raji and a ton of other “no-names” who eat opponents for breakfast.

GB – 24 SEA – 13

Oakland @ Cleveland

I love how it took all season but now this game looks interesting. Cleveland now fields the running back with the 3^rd most productive game in NFL history, Oakland lost BruGrad, then Charlie Frye and now Jamarcus Russell kind of looks like a Quarterback!

I have to say what I said about Jerome Harrison: What were these teams doing all season in NOT doing what they’re doing right now?

Now, I know Jerome Harrison isn’t going to rush for 286 this week, but he can still be very productive. Plus, Oakland is 18^th in the league in rushing so they aren’t horrible either. If you factor in the fact that Brady Quinn is out for the season and you have a rushapalooza on your hands.

You take Oakland’s running attack of Michael Bush, Darren McFadden, and Justin Fargas and put that up against a guy who just ran for 286 yards and I say you’ve got a really quick game on your hands that’s going to involve a lot of bloody noses.

Since Harrison has been riding the bench all season and the Raiders have been trying everything in the book with Fargas, McFadden, and Bush (and over-using McFadden on offense all kinds of “Reggie Bush-like” sets that don’t work in the NFL) you have to give the advantage to the Browns. Both teams basically have no defense so you have to assume that the team that RUNS the ball alone can win the game. I think a fresh Jerome Harrison does that better than Oakland’s 3-headed monster.

CLE – 13 OAK – 10

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

I have a brother-in-law who’s a huge Steelers fan and I’m going to be in Ohio to visit them when this game is on (and he’s getting a Terrible Towel for Christmas.) I think that alone would be enough to pick the Steelers just so I don’t jinx myself, but the Ravens have a lot to play for. They are sitting ahead of Pittsburgh’s group of 6 (at 7-7) and they have to keep winning lest they get caught by one of the 7-7 teams. (Oh, and the indignity of being caught by the Steelers!)

Here’s my problem. Did the Steelers pass for 503 yards last week because they are a newly-minted passing team, because they were playing a poor pass-defense, or both? I think both. They are newly-minted as a passing team, but they weren’t playing the greatest defense ever last week either. Now, if you combine the Steelers’ penchant for passing with Ed Reed you get AT LEAST 1 interception for Reed. That alone is enough to slow them down. Slowing them down means they lose since they just “minted” themselves a passing team because they decided they don’t trust the run (sure that makes Willie Parker feel nice!)

Pittsburgh’s defense is fine, but they are playing a Ravens team that still RUNS and since the Steelers don’t get the best running looks in practice they have stunted themselves for THIS GAME by making the change that I think they made. Moving to the pass will score points, but it kills your defense in practice and against the Ravens…that’s bad!

BAL – 31 PIT – 17

Buffalo @ Atlanta

The Falcons get the Bills at home in a nice little enclosed environment, but the Falcons are out of the playoffs so what do they have to play for? 9-7 folks…9-7.

The Falcons DESPERATELY need to win out to get to 9-7. Not so they can have a winning season, but so they can have CONSECUTIVE winning seasons. It’s something that has haunted this town for a long time.

There’s a reason I’m not a fan of any Atlanta teams…this is losersville. Yeah, the Braves won the World Series in 1995, but they disappoint more than they inspire. The Falcons disappoint more than they inspire. They beat Minnesota in the NFC Title Game in 1998 and then Eugene Robinson picked up a hooker the night before the biggest game of his life and the Falcons got blown-out by the Broncos.

The Braves lost the ’96 World Series to the Yankees after being up 2-0 and leading in Game 3 (the Mavs repeated this in 2006 and they still haven’t’ recovered…well guess what? The Braves never recovered either.)

The Hawks had Dominique Wilkins in the 80’s and couldn’t beat the Celtics in the playoffs (in fact, they STILL can’t.) Then Stan Kasten traded Nique to the Clippers and claimed that Nique asked for the trade (when that is a bold-faced lie.)

You see why I’m not a fan of Atlanta sports teams and yet….I’m from Atlanta. It’s ridiculous!

The Falcons need to start to get out from under the cloud that lingers over Atlanta’s pro sports teams. The beginning of that move is having back-to-back winning seasons so people can’t say “That team hasn’t even had consecutive winning seasons!” and then immediately write them off. It’s easy when you hold one of the quirkiest stats in pro sports.

What about the Bills? Are they playing for their new coach? Playing for pride? What are they doing? Well, they’re only 17^th in rushing (1 ahead of Oakland) and their interim coach may not be their coach next season so I can’t see how a team where the best player is T.O. is going to play for pride. Besides, he hasn’t run his yap in weeks and that IS his pride and joy. Winning now wouldn’t cause him to start yapping…only losing badly will do that. So, based on the fact that Turrull is itching to yap and the Falcons NEED consecutive winning seasons I’ll take the Falcons. (Oh, and they Falcons are at home too.)

ATL – 31 BUF – 13

St. Louis @ Arizona

Alright, the Rams are marching towards franchise-rebuilding and the Cardinals are in the playoffs. Now, do the Cards start resting people and try a new approach or do they KILL the Rams and hope they can stay hot going into the playoffs like they did last year? Well, if you’re Ken Whisenhunt you IMMEDIATELY go back to what works and try to replicate last season, but with a more “seasoned” team. I think that’s smart. (Plus, how would the Rams stop the Cardinals anyways?)

ARI – 35 STL – 10

Detroit @ San Francisco

Neither one of these teams has anything to do at this point in the season except figure out what they’re going to do for next season. The 49ers MUST be VITALLY interested in whether Alex Smith is the future or not. If he isn’t they need to trade him while he looks good and if he is then they need to sign all best offensive linemen in football IMMEDIATELY (after that I give them permission to fix their defense and center it around Patrick Willis like he’s LT and get it on for 2010.)

The Lions need to decide what to fix next. They have Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson and Kevin Jones. They have no defense to speak of and no real presence on the line on either side of the ball. This entire draft for them, coming up, should be focused on late round lineman picks that can play RIGHT NOW because those guys typically were in college for 4 years (or more.) Without better line play the Lions will just start another streak and burn out Stafford the way they burned out Joey Harrington. (Remember what a hot pick Harrington was? He was going to sling the ball around like he did at Oregon? Yeah, the LIONS screwed that one up and they just can’t afford to do it again.)

Because Mike Singletary is their coach and because they have things to do I’m going to pick the 49ers, but I am still very disappointed in how this season went because it began with such promise.

SF – 17 DET – 6

Denver @ Philly

Brian Westbrook was just cleared to play Sunday against the Broncos and now we’ve got some serious thinking to do concerning who’s going to make the playoffs in the AFC. As far as I’m concerned the Eagles are in and they just got Westbrook back. Will they play him? Probably, but only enough to annoy the Broncos defense.

The Broncos are holding a wildcard slot in their hands, but they have to keep winning to keep it because we know that SOMEONE in the 7-7 crowd is going to win. Well, if the Broncos lose and move to 8-7 now we’re talking tiebreakers and that’s tantamount to leaving your ENTIRE season (that started so well) up to chance. Who wants to do that?

The Broncos have the will, they have the coach, they have Kyle Orton passing to Brandon Marshall and that should be enough…EVEN IF the Eagles get something out of Brian Westbrook because I think they’re already shutting down because they know they’re in. They won’t do anything outwardly to say “We’re shutting down until the playoffs” but they will. Andy Reid is the kind of guy (like Bill Belichick) who doesn’t take a lot of joy from football so he’ll just perform an exercise in slowing down his team before the playoffs and that will be enough to get the Broncos another MUCH needed win.

DEN – 35 PHI – 24

Jets @ Indy

Here we go. The clash for 15-0. (I know! That rhymed and it was kinda cool!) Indianapolis will go 16-0 (in my belief system) because of one very crucial reason…joy. In fact, the Colts will win the Super Bowl and complete the undefeated season of 19-0 for exactly that reason (tune in Monday to see why…I’ve got the whole column planned out in my head.) In the meantime, just trust me when I say that Peyton Manning is going to throw a gazillion touchdown passes to Reggie Wayne (who will never be covered by Darelle Revis when it counts because Peyton calls his own plays and he’ll make sure that Revis isn’t on Wayne when they need a score.

I really don’t think that Jim Caldwell is going to slow down because he believes in the “runaway train” method of coaching. Let your team get into “runaway train” mode and don’t let your team take their foot off the gas.

Rex Ryan is great and everything, but him running a version of the 46 defense isn’t that appealing and just because Doug Plank (good work with the Georgia Force Doug…I’m proud of you) is coaching the line doesn’t mean the 46 is going to work. The 46 exists because Plank was PLAYING in it…not coaching it. We won’t every see a defense like the ’83-’86 Bears and there’s no way on earth these kids who play for the Jets can grasp how monumental that Bears defense was. Let’s face it…the Jets just lost to the Falcons (in a game the Falcons were TRYING VERY HARD to lose. I mean…very hard) and now we expect them to stop the runaway train known as the Colts? Yeah right!

IND – 45 NYJ – 17

Dallas @ Washington

Washington has players “auditioning” for jobs while Bruce Allen is surveying the decrepit franchise that he now oversees (this is all according to the MNF crew) and I can’t think of a worse way to “audition”. (For a point of reference…I’m a Bass Clarinetist and I’ve won my fair share of auditions (about 40 in 7 years) and I’d have to say that I never went into an audition with a broken instrument. However, this is exactly what the MNF crew’s “audition” looks like if you’re a player for the Redskins. Jason Campbell’s had to change offenses more than most people change their socks, the rest of the offense is running a system that wouldn’t work against a good college team, and the defense is barely surviving with Albert Haynesworth just sort of floating in the middle. How in the world does that work for these players? Moreover, how does that work for the Skins?

I fully expect that if Bruce Allen bases his opinion of these players based on what he’s seeing now he would have to cut the ENTIRE team. That’s not right. Now, if he waits until the offseason and begins to decide how to structure the team that means people WILL get cut, some coaches will probably get fired, and then he can reconstruct the franchise based on the evaluations he made WITHOUT watching them run this horrid offense. I mean…that’s a BIG DEAL. I want the Skins to be good, but they aren’t going to get there trying to undo everything based on bad end-of-the-season play.

The Cowboys are flying high after putting the Colts on the clock to finish and undefeated season and proving the unreliable nature of the “hot shot” teams in the NFC. Will the Cowboys have a problem beating the Skins? Most likely not, but just because they won a game in December that does not mean that the Cowboys are all of the sudden “in from the cold” and it won’t feel righteous until they win a playoff game. Eyes on the prize boys…eyes on the prize.

DAL – 30 WAS – 6

Monday Night – Minnesota @ Chicago

I just watched a press conference where Brad Childress tried to explain why he’s no longer in charge of the Vikings and then right after that I watched Brett Favre explain that he’s a “team player” and he just wants to do what’s best for the team because “you can’t do this by yourself”.

Let’s get real. The Vikings changed hands when Childress tried to take Favre out of the game and Favre said no and continued to play. What happened after that? The Vikes lost 26-7. (When Childress tried to take Favre out the Vikes were winning 7-6.) Well, that’s funny…isn’t this the same thing that has been happening the past few years with the Packers, the Jets and now the Vikings? I even tried to defend Favre last week by saying that he wouldn’t fade because he was just hanging out in the backfield in a lawn chair and enjoying watching AP play and slinging the ball to Percy Harvin. Well, that’s a problem because I was DEAD ASS WRONG.

Brett Favre doesn’t mean it when he says you can’t do this by yourself…he WANTS to do it by himself to prove to somebody that he can do it by himself even though Joe Montana (a much better QB than him) didn’t do it by himself…nor did Roger Staubach, or Troy Aikman, or Steve Young, or Terry Bradshaw…you get the idea. Somehow, Brett thinks he needs more control over the offense.

Now, I know that Peyton Manning calls his own game with “suggestions” from Tom Moore, but that’s Peyton Manning. Brett Favre isn’t that poised…he just isn’t. If Brett wants to call his own game the Vikings will be losing on a Favre interception while it’s snowing outside the Metrodome. They will be. He needs to get over himself before he tanks this REALLY GOOD season that the Vikings have put together. But, if you look at it right, he’s almost done that even when he did win the Super Bowl. Almost every year it eventually becomes ABOUT Brett Favre instead of being about the team he’s on. He sunk the Packers (and they replaced him with Aaron Rodgers), the Jets (who replaced him with Mark Sanchez) and if they don’t win the Super Bowl this year the Vikes will be OVER IT. I guarantee you. They’d rather try again than put up with the crap he’s shelling out now. Favre is such a distraction that the Vikings might as well go ahead and concede their first playoff game because they may not even make it to the NFC Title Game. Get over yourself Brett….now.

(Why talk about Chicago? They ain’t winning this one…not with the stinging hate that boils between these two teams. Chicago sucks and Lovie’s probably getting fired….sorry folks.)

MIN – 24 CHI – 13

Next week….Joy and the Colts’ pursuit of 19-0

Posted by The General on Dec 23rd, 2009 and filed under American Football - NFL, Sports. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response by filling following comment form or trackback to this entry from your site

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