How Do We Get Some of These Teams Into The BCS Title Game?

It’s no small feat to figure out how to “get” a team into a particular situation.  We do it all the time around the water cooler when we say “Well, if Team A wins this game and this game and Team B loses here and then Team C is totally in the driver’s seat.”  Sometimes we even go through our favorite team’s schedule and start predicting the wins and losses (as if we actually had a freakin’ clue who was good and who was bad before the season even started.)

Sometimes, we get so enamored with our own ideals of how something SHOULD work that we forget how it is actually DOES work.  This, my friends, is where today’s topic comes into play.  How in the world would current one-loss teams get into the BCS Title Game?  I know I’ve gone on at length about how 1 loss is more than zero so if we have undefeateds in the ranks of college football then this is a moot point, but I’ve seen some things this week that have called into question every single unbeaten and caused me to ask myself…”How would you get Georgia Tech, Oregon, Penn State or LSU into the BCS Title Game?”  It has a lot more to do with circumstances than just having unbeaten teams lose.  Let me show you:

Let’s say LSU beats Alabama this week.  Guess what?  Bama is toast.  Under the current system they could not recover from that loss and LSU would take their place in the standings most likely.  Well, if LSU wins out after that and beats Florida in the SEC Title Game you would most likely see them in the BCS Title Game.  But you know what, that’s the only way LSU is getting to the Title Game?  They CAN’T have another loss and Bama HAS TO LOSE in order for LSU to get somewhere this year.

Let’s say LSU beats Bama but something goes awry for them later on in the season.  Now, Florida is on the fast-track to the BCS Title Game and the SEC is filled with 1 and 2 loss teams.  Well, perhaps Georgia Tech could squeak in there.  (Remember this means a whole bunch of other teams have lost a game too, but typically these scenarios get played out close to home.)

Georgia Tech wins out (probably crushing UGA) and then wins the ACC Title Game.  They have one loss, a whole bunch of teams in the SEC have one loss why wouldn’t they have a shot?  Because the ACC is not deep enough?  (Good point.)  You see, that’s the thing, I can sit here all day and yap about how Georgia Tech could squeak into the BCS Title Game but they would have to win out, every other unbeaten would have to lose (maybe even Florida too) and then they would have to hope that the losses taken by the other unbeatens were BAD losses.  It’s not enough if Bama loses to LSU.  They’ve got to get killed by LSU.  Texas can’t just lose; they’ve got to get beat up by UCF or by a highly inferior Big 12 North team in the Big 12 Championship Game.  I love Georgia Tech, but not all of these teams are going to lie down and die in front of an inferior opponent.  Sorry Jackets, either you go undefeated or the ACC gets ALOT stronger before you can get into the Title mix.

What about Penn State?  Well, their only loss is to Iowa.  If Iowa loses it’ll have to be some kind of crushing defeat (maybe to Northwestern this weekend) because if they just barely lose a heartbreaker and everybody else on earth also has one loss they NEVER get ranked below Penn State (especially since they beat Penn State.)  The only way Penn State jumps ahead of them again is if Iowa is annihilated by somebody.  Then the humiliation of that loss might shoot Penn State ahead of them.

What about Oregon?  Oregon beat USC and that’s the biggest win with the most cache for any of the one-loss teams I mentioned.  Actually, I’d say they’ve already gotten the biggest help of the year by losing early and then smashing USC.  If every undefeated team loses and Oregon wins out they’ll be in the Title Game.  Think about it, even if all the undefeateds lose except Florida it will (and probably should be) Oregon and Florida for all the marbles.

Now the question is simple.  Will any of the undefeateds lose?  Well, let’s see…

Texas has UCF, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M.  I guess it would look bad if they lost to A&M in the “Home of the 12th Man” but honestly, that won’t happen.  It would look worse if they lost to UCF, but Daunte Culpepper doesn’t go there anymore.  Maybe at Kansas they could catch a loss, but would it look bad enough?

Todd Reesing was on Heisman short-lists last year and probably will be again by the end of the year, he’s a good player and might be able to move the ball around on Texas’s defense.  So, there’s probably a 35% chance that Kansas beats Texas, but even so that won’t look bad enough for voters to count them COMPLETELY out.  Oregon would jump ahead of them, but GT, Penn State, and LSU would probably be sunk.

Iowa isn’t losing to Northwestern (though it would be funny because they might as well lose to Harvard or Yale) but it won’t happen.  Iowa might lost to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes are in a funk.  However, you know who always screws up people’s seasons?  Minnesota…

When Iowa gets Minnesota in Iowa City they have a real chance of getting their brains beat in at exactly the wrong time.  Because Iowa always has untimely losses I have to assume that they’ll have another one until they show me differently, so that would help out a lot of people.  However, it will not vault Penn State back into the mix because this is the Big Ten and Iowa would already have a hard enough time getting into the Title Game even if they were undefeated.  (Thank about it:  These people that vote in the polls are going to give a Big Ten team any sort of credit at all?  It isn’t gonna happen.  Iowa’s only chance is to be the last undefeated team standing.)

I like Cincinnati’s story, but they play in the Big East and Big East teams ALWAYS lose at the wrong time.  West Virginia dropping a game to Pitt at the end of the season when they had an appearance in the Title Game in the bag…yeah, that was just stupid.  In general, Big East teams lose games they aren’t supposed to lose (that’s why Virginia Tech and Miami have lost games they aren’t supposed to lose this season.  You can take the team out of the Big East but you can’t take the Big East out of the team.)  Cincinnati, if they’re going to lose, is going to drop their last game of the season to Pitt (who somehow made it all the way to #13 in the polls.)  Let’s face it, Pitt is the spoiler of all spoilers and they’ll probably spoil Cincy’s season too.  Even if I wanted to believe that my “Tale of Three Undefeateds” column would pan and out and Cincy would go undefeated I can’t overlook the fact that Big East teams lose at the wrong time A LOT.  So, with that said, if they are going to lose a game it will be their season finale @ Pitt.  Sorry Bearcats, I just know better.  The dream is great (and I even have the dream) but I don’t see it happening.  At the end of the day I can’t deny the Big East’s penchant for losing the wrong game at the wrong time.  (Even so, do we really think the BCS system would put Cincy in the Title Game?  I know I’m a dreamer, but I’m also a realist.  I know how this thing works.)

I would discuss TCU’s potential-loss-potential but I know better than to get involved with the Horned Frogs when we’re talking about being a realist.  The devil himself could walk into a selection committee meeting, crack a whip, and tell all the committee members that they were going to die if they didn’t put TCU in the Title Game (as an undefeated) and they still wouldn’t do it.  The same goes for Boise State.  I like these teams, but there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of them getting considered for the Title Game even if they go undefeated.

{I know, I know, you’re still thinking that I’m contradicting myself and my “Tale of Three Undefeateds” column, but I’m not.  I was talking about arithmetic then.  About how we need to learn that undefeated means undefeated.  The problem is that we don’t and the system is based on this “quality of opponent” and “strength of schedule” stuff.  So, since we have to deal with that a lower-level team in a lower-level conference will NEVER get a whiff of the Championship Game just because it isn’t allowed.  So, we have to talk real scenarios here.)

With all of this prognostication aside let’s get down to real predictions:

I think Texas wins out.

I think Bama loses to LSU

I think Cincy struggles to run the table

I think nobody cares about TCU and Boise State

I think Iowa loses to Minnesota

I think Texas plays Florida for a shot at the Title

Come on Ace, you want a shot at the title?


Check out my College Pick ‘em Rally After the Jump…

If there ever was an easy week to pick games I would think this would be it.  I see a couple upsets (obvious upsets mind you) and a bunch of good teams crushing bad teams:

Syracuse @ (13) Pitt – Sticking with the whole “Big East teams are good at screwing things up for themselves” theme I’ll take the Orange over the Panthers in a “Dave Wannstedt Reversal of Fortune Special”.  The Orange Crushes Pitt…

Northwestern @ (4) Iowa – It would be hilarious if Iowa lost to Northwestern, but they probably won’t.  I’m still saving that heartbreaker for the season finale with Minnesota.  The Hawkeyes Peck the Wildcats to death…

Virginia @ (17) Miami – Jacory Harris, good story.  Randy Shannon, on the right track.  Miami football, back on the map.  This game, an upset waiting to happen.  Virginia was doing fine until they got pushed around by GT and I think they’re a little better than they’re getting credit for.  I also think Miami wasn’t quite as good as we gave them credit for.  Even though this is in Miami the hometown crowd for Miami isn’t really an advantage.  The Cavaliers Charge the Canes…

Tennessee Tech @ Georgia – If Georgia manages to lose this game Mark Richt might have to fire all his assistants.  They need to keep him, and I don’t really ever want to see someone lose their job, but something’s got to change in Athens.  Actually, it might behoove Richt to consider shuffling his Assistants into new positions.  Find another offensive coach who can coordinate better than Bobo, find another defensive coach who can coordinate better than Martinez, and find another recruiter who recruits better than whoever is doing it now.  I don’t think they’ll lose, but I won’t put it past them.  The Dawgs Win With Their Tail Between Their Legs…

(9) LSU @ (3) Alabama – I’ll say it again just to make it official.  LSU will ruin Bama’s season in Tuscaloosa.  There, I said it.  The Bayou Bengals Geaux Home With a Win…

(16) Ohio State @ (11) Penn State – To think Ohio State can get out of this slump and beat Penn State is a fairy tale.  I once drove through downtown Columbus after the Buckeyes lost to Michigan at home and the people walking Lane Ave. looked like they all wanted to drown themselves.  This entire community is already depressed and they are too depressed to beat the Nittany Lions.  JoePa adds to the record…

(19) Okie State @ Iowa State – Dez Bryant lost his appeal to the NCAA and he’s moving to Tampa, like yesterday, to train for the Draft.  This means two things:

1)      Okie State didn’t need him that bad.  He’s moving TOMORROW.  Wow, you really wanted to be in Stillwater!

2)      They might be better off without him.

The Cowboys lasso the Cyclones…

(6) TCU @ San Diego State – TCU could beat a team with 10-foot-tall Angels in armor carrying 7-foot-long swords with Jesus at Quarterback and they still wouldn’t be in the Title hunt.  Either way, SDSU is going down to Chinatown.

And there you have it:  The unifying point in my diatribe about realism.  Enjoy the college football weekend.

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Posted by The General on Nov 6th, 2009 and filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response by filling following comment form or trackback to this entry from your site

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